Becky Kenny of RE/MAX Professionals shows a listing at 179 Satsuma Place in Plum Creek, Castle Rock, priced at $699,000, backing to the Pete Dye-designed golf course.

“We’ve been predicting for six months that we’d begin seeing appreciation in the lowest price ranges, and that the effect would begin creeping into the middle ranges,” says broker Jack O’Connor, a principal owner of the newly combined RE/MAX Professionals. He issues a monthly report to agents on market prospects.

As builders and Realtors look to the data on sales issued at the first of each month, they’re seeing concrete evidence of price appreciation affecting homes up to the $275,000 range. O’Connor reports that homes in the 7-county Denver metro area priced $250,000 and below have seen around 3% appreciation since the first of the year.

All markets are local, of course, and some neighborhoods are faring better still, some not as well. Homes in the highest ranges are still battling too much inventory. In those higher ranges, O’Connor predicts, no significant appreciation can be expected for two years.

Meanwhile, O’Connor expects this month’s data to show increases in sales…and a modest increase in inventory levels, well within the bounds that will likely keep the price curve on the rise, at least for low to middle price range homes.

None of those factors were what figured into the analysis of nationally known real estate expert Barbara Corcoran, who gave Today viewers her picks of the five national cities most likely to recover first. Top pick, very best prospects in the nation: Denver.

“This city is clearly on a rebound,” Corcoran told viewers. “It’s really the perfect real estate success story. It had one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation for years running, and they’ve now cut that foreclosure rate in half. Prices are moving up just now for the first time after seven years of being down.”

Also figuring into Corcoran’s calculations in “most likely to recover” are job base, good weather, a well educated work force, an adequate supply of first-time buyers to fuel the move-up market, a relative lack of ‘over-building’ of condos and commercial real estate, and a vital downtown area.

Denver, she noted, is a young market, has one of the best park systems in the country, and home prices (average 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, acoording to MSNBC just $193,000) that look appealing, compared even to other cities that she ranked close on the list, also likely to do well in coming months: Raleigh, Austin, Seattle and San Francisco.

O’Connor notes that the Denver area is showing one of its lowest summer inventories of homes for sale seen in ten years.

“Watch for appreciation to begin creeping into higher price ranges,” he adds. O’Connor cautions sellers to know where their home is positioned relative to others, to negotiate a highest realistic price.

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Jack O’Connor, principal in the new RE/MAX Professionals, shows a listing at 1298 Bellaire in Denver. The home has 3,400 square feet including a finished basement, at $585,000. Home inventories are at the lowest level in the 7-county area in six years.

“Denver is a declining inventory market, especially in the starter home ranges,” broker Jack O’Connor told me, as the new month’s Metrolist data came out this week.

O’Connor, former managing broker with Prestige Real Estate Group and one of the principal owners of RE/MAX Professionals, combining Prestige with two large RE/MAX offices, publishes a monthly report to agents on how the market is performing. What the data show now, O’Connor says, is a far cry from what inventory looked like in 2006 and 2007, when sales were higher and when California and Florida were booming.

As of the first of May, inventory in the 7-county area stands at 21,454 homes…almost 10,000 units below the supply on late spring of 2006; about 6,000 less than a year ago.

That’s the smallest supply in six years, O’Connor notes. Even more startlingly, the supply for sale this month actually dropped from that available at the first of April…the first time that’s happened in ten years. “Inventory typically swells in spring,” O’Connor told me. “Having total inventory fall on the first of May is very atypical, and underscores just how low the supply really is.”

In the market under $250,000, where first-time buyers find their opportunities, the supply of homes calculates to just over 3-1/2 months. “That’s obviously a seller’s market, and explains why our agents are reporting multiple offers on some of their lower priced listings,” O’Connor said.

For higher priced homes, the corresponding supply gets larger and the time they spend on the market gets longer. “But when a seller of a lower priced home sells, they can move up,” O’Connor notes. “It takes about six months for that effect to make its way through the next higher $250,000 price niche, and for that range to begin selling faster.”

O’Connor adds that for the most expensive homes, a smaller inventory drop is now likely. “It’s tough to get financing at that price range, but it’s likely we’ll see continued drop in the million-dollar inventory over the next months, as well,” he says.

So, for sellers of high priced homes, help is on the way. For sellers of more reasonably priced homes, O’Connor says, know where your home is positioned relative to others, to negotiate a highest realistic price.

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Jack O’Connor, principal in the new RE/MAX Professionals, shows a listing at 1298 Bellaire in Denver. The home has 3,400 square feet including a finished basement, at $585,000. Home inventories are at the lowest level in the 7-county area in six years.

“Denver is a declining inventory market, especially in the starter home ranges,” broker Jack O’Connor told me, as the new month’s Metrolist data came out this week.

O’Connor, former managing broker with Prestige Real Estate Group and one of the principal owners of RE/MAX Professionals, combining Prestige with two large RE/MAX offices, publishes a monthly report to agents on how the market is performing. What the data show now, O’Connor says, is a far cry from what inventory looked like in 2006 and 2007, when sales were higher and when California and Florida were booming.
As of the first of May, inventory in the 7-county area stands at 21,454 homes…almost 10,000 units below the supply on late spring of 2006; about 6,000 less than a year ago.

That’s the smallest supply in six years, O’Connor notes. Even more startlingly, the supply for sale this month actually dropped from that available at the first of April…the first time that’s happened in ten years. “Inventory typically swells in spring,” O’Connor told me. “Having total inventory fall on the first of May is very atypical, and underscores just how low the supply really is.”

In the market under $250,000, where first-time buyers find their opportunities, that calculates to just over 3-1/2 months supply. “That’s obviously a seller’s market, and explains why our agents are reporting multiple offers on some of their lower priced listings,” O’Connor said.
For higher priced homes, the corresponding supply gets larger and the time they spend on the market gets longer. “But when a seller of a lower priced home sells, they can move up,” O’Connor notes. “It takes about six months for that effect to make its way through the next higher $250,000 price niche, and for that range to begin selling faster.”

O’Connor adds that for the most expensive homes, a smaller inventory drop is now likely. “It’s tough to get financing at that price range, but it’s likely we’ll see continued drop in the million-dollar inventory over the next months, as well,” he says.

So, for sellers of high priced homes, help is on the way. For sellers of more reasonably priced homes, O’Connor says, know where your home is positioned relative to others, to negotiate a highest realistic price.

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